Dec 9, 2006

Seat-of-the-Pants-Less

自從轉行進入工業工程(Industrial Engineering),嘴邊耳邊常常都掛著OR, OR...(OR: Operations Research)。但是人家問起,什麼是OR,我也不知道要怎麼回答。無法讓一般人了解自己究竟是在做什麼,這樣感覺很差,好像混混噩噩的,自己都不知道自己在做什麼。

不過,最近看到由INFORMS製作的一本小冊子,大約十二頁而已,就給OR作了不錯的介紹。本來想翻成中文 ,記在這裡,但想說自己功力不夠,有多名詞,又不知道中文恰當的翻法(像OR的中文是什麼?作業研究?運籌學?),所以決定還是照原文記下好了。


OPERATIONS RESEARCH: THE SECRET OF BETTER DECISION MAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD

Now there's a practical alternative to seat-of-the-pants decision making. Executives in every kind of organization are using operations research (O.R.) to unlock the value in their data, model complex systems, and make better decisions with less risk. Whether O.R. is used to inform high-level strategy or improve day-to-day operations, the results speak for themselves: Insight into difficult problems. Improved processes, productivity, and performance. Millions in cost savings and increased revenues. More profitable pricing. Greater market share. Higher quality. Superior ROI. Better asset utilization....

WHAT IS OPERATIONS RESEARCH?

In a nutshell, operations research is the discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions

By using techniques such as mathematical modeling to analyze complex situations, operations research gives executives the power to make more effective decisions and build more productive system based on: more complete data, consideration of all available options, careful predictions of outcomes and estimates of risk, and the latest decision tools and techniques.

To achieve these results, O.R. professional draw upon the latest analytical technologies, including:

  • Simulation - Giving you the ability to try out approaches and test ideas for improvement
  • Optimization - Narrowing your choices to the very best when there are virtually innumerable feasible options and comparing them is difficult.
  • Probability and statistics - Helping you measure risk, mine data to find valuable connections and insights, test conclusions, and make reliable forecasts.

WHAT OPERATIONS RESEARCH CAN DO FOR YOU?

Organizations and the world in which they operate continue to become more complex. Huge numbers of choices and relentless time and margin pressures make the decisions you face more daunting and more difficult. Meanwhile, new enterprise applications and software are generating massive amounts of data - and it can seem like an overwhelming task to turn that data in to insight and answers.

But all that data and the availability of more and cheaper computing power are creating an important opportunity for decision makers, one O.R. is ideally designed to help you take advantage of. O.R. professionals thrive on challenges that involve large numbers of variables, complex systems, and significant risks.

5 signs you could benefit from operations research

  1. You face complex decisions.
  2. You're having problems with processes.
  3. You're troubled by risk.
  4. Your organization is not making the most of its data.
  5. You need to beat stiff competition.


如果想看本手冊的全文,或是更進一步了解Operations Research,請到www.scienceofbetter.org

Do You Like Your Neighbers?

全球著名的獨立調查公司Pew Research Center的一項計畫Pew Global Attitudes Project,最近對中國,日本,印度,和巴基斯坦的民眾做了訪問。大致的結論是,他們都不喜觀他們的鄰居。從歷史的糾葛和現實的競爭,這現象是很容易理解的。尤其是中國和日本之間的對立,更是注目的焦點。(閱讀詳細報告)

不過,我比較好奇的是,台灣對於她的鄰居們,有什麼樣的感受?

以我自身的體驗,台灣民眾雖然從小被教導,日本侵華及統治台灣時的種種惡行,但似乎沒有什麼直接的情感影響,反而是在經濟和文化上大量的交流,而產生某種親近之感;反觀,大陸的經濟崛起,以及兩岸政治上的對立,雖然同文同種,台灣對大陸卻有某種程度的擔憂及厭惡。

Dec 3, 2006

台韓超級比一比

無論對自己或對手,在頌揚或唱衰時,是否有看清真相及去理解緣由。這篇社論值得我們省思。

當經濟部智慧財產局於29日發布了「2005年我國與美日歐專利申請暨核准概況分析」,幾乎所有媒體所下的標題均是:根據美國專利商標局(USPTO)的最新統計,2005年我國對美專利申請件數已被韓國超越,落居外國申請人第四名。不過,一細看內容,發現2005年我國在美被核准的專利數仍高於韓國,居外人第三名。

從這新聞及處理上來看,凸顯國人總喜歡拿放大鏡比較台灣與韓國…

…台灣與韓國發展,本有其相異之處;韓國重規劃與執行,喜好治重兵、抄捷徑,因此,成就焦點顯著而清晰,但國家整體競爭力,則似乎並未因此而獲得全面性提升。而台灣則是由於政治不穩、社會凝聚力低,規劃不出朝野共識的發展藍圖,即便有規劃但執行成效又無法貫徹,因此,國家競爭力散落及蘊藏在個別企業及人民身上;如此,經濟雖會持續成長,但卻溫吞而緩慢,到底沒有國家經濟戰略觀的策略,很難令人感動與為其努力。

【2006/12/02 經濟日報社論】

<看全文>

Dec 2, 2006

Happy Birthday to Me

持續一個月像是秋季的天氣,晴爽而不寒冷,今天終於下雪了,加上風勢驚人,雪花不是垂直的落下,而是橫著飛行;氣象報告還說芝加哥是thunder-SNOW(雷雪?!),更下起小冰雹,飛場延誤超過250分鐘。這樣突來的天氣變化,打消了我想早早去學校工作的念頭。待在家裡,也感覺得到外面一絲絲滲進屋子裡的寒冷,裹著厚厚的棉被,享受僅有的溫暖,想當隻冬眠的狐狸。

還是到了該出門的時候。就在全付武裝,準備好要面對雪花紛飛的天氣之際,碰碰碰的有人在敲家門。打開門一看,FedEx的送貨員,我笑了,因為我前天訂的ipod到了!FedEx送貨員知道我就是收貨人,還跟我說了一句,"You are the winner!"。為了要拚在我生日時拿到,我用了2-Day Shipping,本以為會因為出貨的關係遲個一兩天,沒想到真的就剛剛好,像是生日禮物一樣,就在當天送到家裡,而且是送到我的面前,真開心。

Support World AIDS Day這是特有的紅色ipod,是(PRODUCT)RED的產品之一,其目的是資助The Global Fund,一個全球性對抗愛病(AIDS)的基金。當初訂這款紅色ipod時,一方面是喜歡這樣的顏色,另一方面能夠資助這樣的活動,也是我樂意所見的。有獨無偶的,今天也是全球愛滋病日(World AIDS Day),雖然沒有辦法有什麼貢獻和作為,但也紀念一下全球有超過四億人口,在與愛滋病搏鬥,而且絕大部分的患者,都是生存在惡劣環境之中。是的,我用「生存」這個詞,因為在那種環境之下,沒有生活的可言,只有盡可能的求生求活下去。

相形之下,過去三十年的歲月,在上帝的保守,家人的關愛,朋友的扶持,我是很幸福的。